In their new book, three acclaimed researchers share what happens when you study the calibration of confidence levels among different professions in which predictions are integral to the work. With ...

Considering all potential obstacles and challenges reduces overconfidence and helps focus on what what we can realistically ...

Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. If you’re laying the groundwork for a startup, it’s no surprise that the odds for success are often against you. A 2018 study by CB ...

Confidence is crucial. It inspires audacious acts, elevates teams and spurs businesses to grow. But too much of it? That’s trouble. Overconfidence can tamper with decisions and bury risks in plain ...

Understanding and overcoming this cognitive bias in finance and investing Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his ...

When it comes to investing, it’s best not to trust your memory, according to a new study co-authored by Philip Fernbach, professor of marketing in the Leeds School of Business at the University of ...

One of the most widely documented biases in the social sciences is the fact that individuals typically overestimate their own abilities. For instance, people believe they are more attractive, smarter, ...

The science of polling took a hit in 2016 when it forecast that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump. Did the science improve four years later? In 2020, polls indicated that Joe Biden would ...