The employment rate for men declines by 18 percentage points between ages 51 and 61. If that decline were cut in half, the authors calculate that the average cognitive score would increase by about ...

To fill these gaps, beneficiaries must actively choose among several insurance options—enrolling in Medicare Advantage, adding private supplemental insurance to traditional Medicare, or, for those ...

The NBER Board of Directors appointed 35 Research Associates at its September 2026 meeting. Research Associates must be tenured faculty members at North American colleges or universities; their ...

Mark Mason, Jack Porter, and Mark Wolfson were elected to the NBER Board of Directors at the Board’s September 28 meeting.

This paper studies how judicial ideology shapes financial markets' expectations about the macroeconomy. We use unexpected deaths of U.S. Supreme Court Justices as quasi-experimental shifts in the ...

We analyze the academic affiliations of nearly 6,000 award-winning researchers in 18 major fields in the natural sciences, engineering, and social sciences from the 1820s to the 2020s, focusing on the ...

We study how the shale revolution and the U.S. transition from petroleum importer to net exporter have changed the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks. Using oil supply news shocks identified from ...

We use newly linked IRS data to study how US multinationals use tax-planning structures that exploit mismatches between US and foreign tax laws. In 2016, these structures accounted for 36% of foreign ...

I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 ...

Pension funds are long-horizon investors with predictable liability structures. As such, they are often perceived as investors who can provide liquidity and stabilize markets. However, pension funds ...

Many public policies aim to support (or change the behavior of) a specific, targeted sub-group of the population. To measure the causal impacts of such policies, social scientists use ...

Artificial intelligence is driving a large expansion in data center capacity, power infrastructure, and specialized computing equipment. We estimate that a 1 GW AI campus costs about $41 billion. A ...