Today, Canadians will head to the polls to decide how to form their next government. Throughout 2023 and 2024, polling suggested the country’s next federal election would be a rout for the ...

Although our critics might disagree, we seek to avoid false equivocation at Silver Bulletin. Generally, when a party is ahead in our forecast, we’ll highlight why our model thinks they’re winning.

We’re approaching Labor Day — which has traditionally been considered the “real” starting point of midterm election campaigns. You’ll often hear a narrative that goes something like this: voters only ...

Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats. Predicting which ...

It’s sometimes said that wealth is “destroyed” when the stock market declines, but it’s worth unpacking what that means. On the one hand, it’s true that when your investment portfolio loses value, ...

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

Yesterday, I complained about how so many pollsters are “herding” by publishing results that are almost an exact tie in a way that is incredibly statistically ...

Here at Silver Bulletin, we’ve been predicting that AI would become one of the most salient political issues for quite some time. That hasn’t happened with the general public quite yet — just 1 ...

The “drafts” we’ve periodically conducted for the 2028 Democratic and Republican nominations are popular features with Silver Bulletin readers. No apologies for that. I’m not going to tell you that ...